Last week, a new study by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) – one of the State Chamber’s national affiliates – found that the House global warming legislation (also known as the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill) could cost the United States nearly 2.5 million jobs by 2030. According to the analysis, over the next two decades, as emission reductions are tightened, “U.S. jobs would decline by 1.8 million under the low cost case” and by “2.4 million under the high cost case” due to higher energy prices and greater competition from overseas manufacturers with lower energy costs. Up to 66% of the total job loss from the climate bill could come from the U.S. manufacturing sector.
The study notes that “by 2030, U.S. manufacturing output would decrease by 5.3% to 6.5%.” The production of metals, stone and glass, motor vehicles, computer and paper would be hit particularly hard. The study notes: “In addition, the general shift away from coal would result in a 76% reduction in coal production and electricity production would fall by 13.7% to 16.9% by 2030.
These losses will have a lasting effect on the economic base of the United States.” High energy prices, fewer jobs, and loss of industrial output are estimated to reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by between $419 billion and $571 billion by 2030. Cumulative GDP losses range between $2.2 trillion and $3.1 trillion. Residential electricity prices would increase 50%, while gasoline prices would rise 26%. The study can be seen by clicking here.
