Here is Some Optimistic News
(U.S. News & World Report) -- There are a number of reasons to think that the economy might, just might, shift back into gear faster than most of us think or hope. One is plunging oil prices. Now they're below $40 thanks to slowing global demand. At the same time, gas prices have plunged from over $4 a gallon to around $1.67 nationally. (And some analysts think they're heading to a buck a gallon.) JP Morgan Chase economist James Glassman estimates that the drop in oil prices represents "a boost equivalent to a $350 billion stimulus." Another reason is falling mortgage rates. Rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a low, low 5.19% last week. That should help housing affordability and the ability of current homeowners to refinance their mortgages. Other reasons are the actions by the Federal Reserve, which has made it clear that the Fed will buy various debt securities to unfreeze the credit markets, and President-elect Obama's stimulus plan, as the new Democrat-controlled Congress will likely spend somewhere between $750 billion and $1 trillion over the next two years to boost the economy. The final reason is America's deep fundamentals. Overall, the core U.S. economy is in far better shape than it was in the 1970s, with a higher productivity and a better tax and regulatory system. Even though the U.S. economy finally succumbed to the oil shock and the credit crisis in 2008, it held up longer than many predicted thanks to its deep strengths. Who knows, maybe it will surprise the bears again in 2009.
